什么是思维模型

最近一段时间我开始思考一些人思维最本质的东西，我发现这种东西应该被称为思维模型。我发现从小到大学校教给了学生很多知识，但是从来没有教会学生应该如何思考。学生在面对一些复杂问题时，从来缺乏使用正确的思维模型，对知识进行基本的逻辑判断。

一般没有受过高等教育的人会采用一维线性模型，简单来讲就是一件事发生只能有一个原因，一个原因起决定作用。比如孩子学习不好=没有努力学习，所以要增加学习时间。没有找到好工作=学历不够，只有高学历才能找到好工作。这种判断不能说错，但在大多数情况下过度简化了事情的因果，并没有把很多事情看作是一个多因素相互作用的复杂系统。

另一个常见谬误是把相关性当成因果关系，还是举学习的例子。一般来讲，学习越勤奋越能取得好成绩，但是这里有几个有意思的问题：1.勤奋和好成绩之间是否有中介变量？比如勤奋的学习习惯使得对待作业更加认真，认真的态度使得成绩进步。2.好成绩是否是多种因素相互作用的结果？多种因素本身是否就构成一定的线性关系？事实上，在统计学中，我们一般使用VIF（Variance Inflation Factor）来衡量自变量本身之间的线性相关性。3.勤奋和好成绩是否构成线性关系？当勤奋到达一定程度的时候，是否会构成边际效应递减关系？这个时候再投入过多的时间学习，得到的成绩回报会不会过少？

然而如果没有学习过统计学，很难学会其中的思维模型，更难以将它们应用到生活中去。学习的知识越多，我愈发发现世界上存在的思维模型远比我想象的要多，越多学一些新知识，就越会使用新的方式去思考问题。

What are mental models?

Recently, I’ve started thinking about the most fundamental aspects of some people’s thinking. I’ve realized that this thing should be called a mental model. I’ve noticed that from primary school to university, schools teach students a lot of knowledge, but they never teach students how to think. When students are faced with some complex problems, they always lack the use of the correct mental models to make basic logical judgments about knowledge.

Generally, people without a higher education tend to adopt a one - dimensional linear model. Simply put, for an event, there can only be one cause, and this one cause is decisive. For example, a child’s poor academic performance = not studying hard enough, so the solution is to increase study time. Not getting a good job = not having a high enough degree, and only a high degree can lead to a good job. This kind of judgment is not entirely wrong, but in most cases, it over - simplifies the cause - and - effect relationship of things. It doesn’t view many things as a complex system where multiple factors interact.

Another common fallacy is mistaking correlation for causation. Let’s take the example of studying again. Generally speaking, the more diligent one is in studying, the better the academic performance. But there are several interesting questions here: 1. Is there an intermediate variable between diligence and good grades? For example, a diligent study habit makes one more serious about homework, and a serious attitude leads to improved grades. 2. Is good academic performance the result of the interaction of multiple factors? Do these multiple factors themselves form a certain linear relationship? In fact, in statistics, we generally use VIF (Variance Inflation Factor) to measure the linear correlation among independent variables. 3. Do diligence and good grades form a linear relationship? When diligence reaches a certain level, will there be a diminishing marginal effect? If too much time is invested in studying at this point, will the return in terms of grades be too little?

However, if one has not studied statistics, it is difficult to learn the mental models therein, and even more difficult to apply them to life. The more knowledge I learn, the more I realize that there are far more mental models in the world than I imagined. The more new knowledge I learn, the more I will think about problems in new ways.